In a recent blog post, Anthropic, a US-based AI company, expressed support for the US government’s proposed export controls on domestically made AI chips. However, the company suggested some tweaks to the restrictions, including lowering the number of chips Tier 2 countries can purchase without review and increasing funding to ensure proper enforcement. This move comes as the US government aims to bolster its dominance in AI and national security.
Forecast for 6 months: The US government is likely to implement the proposed export controls on May 15, with some adjustments based on Anthropic’s suggestions. This may lead to a temporary slowdown in AI chip exports to Tier 2 countries, but the impact on the global AI market may be minimal.
Forecast for 1 year: As the export controls take effect, we can expect to see a shift in the global AI chip market, with Tier 2 countries exploring alternative suppliers and developing their own AI chip manufacturing capabilities. This may lead to increased competition and innovation in the AI chip market.
Forecast for 5 years: The US government’s export controls may lead to a significant reduction in AI chip exports to China and other Tier 3 countries, potentially giving the US a temporary advantage in the AI race. However, this may also lead to increased investment in AI research and development in China, potentially closing the gap in the long term.
Forecast for 10 years: As the global AI market continues to evolve, we can expect to see the emergence of new AI chip manufacturing capabilities in countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa. The US government’s export controls may have inadvertently accelerated this trend, leading to a more decentralized and diverse AI chip market.
