A recent analysis by METR, a non-profit organization, suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) systems are improving at a rapid pace and could close the gap with humans sooner than anticipated. The study found that the time horizon of leading AI models has doubled roughly every seven months since 2019, with the latest models doubling their horizon roughly every three months. This exponential growth raises concerns about the potential impact of AI on various industries and aspects of life.
Forecast for 6 months: AI models will continue to improve at an exponential rate, with the time horizon of leading models potentially doubling every 2-3 months. This could lead to increased adoption of AI in various industries, including healthcare, finance, and education.
Forecast for 1 year: By the end of 2024, AI models will likely be able to handle tasks that take humans about 2-3 weeks at 50% reliability. This could lead to significant changes in the job market, with some jobs becoming obsolete and new ones emerging.
Forecast for 5 years: By 2029, AI models will likely be able to handle tasks that take humans about a month at 50% reliability. This could lead to widespread adoption of AI in various industries, including the creation of new businesses and scientific discoveries.
Forecast for 10 years: By 2034, AI models will likely be able to handle tasks that take humans about 6-12 months at 50% reliability. This could lead to significant changes in the way we live and work, with AI potentially becoming an integral part of our daily lives.
