A recent surge in automated web scraping by AI-driven bots has overwhelmed online repositories and scholarly publishers, causing disruptions and service outages. The bots, which are gathering data to train generative AI tools, have become a significant headache for researchers and publishers, with many organizations struggling to block them. The rise of open-source AI chatbots and large language models has led to an explosion of bots seeking to scrape data, putting pressure on websites and their resources.
Forecast for 6 months: Expect a continued increase in bot traffic, with more publishers and repositories experiencing service disruptions and outages. In response, website owners will develop more sophisticated methods to block and detect bots, leading to a cat-and-mouse game between bot developers and website administrators.
Forecast for 1 year: As the bot problem persists, publishers and repositories will begin to implement more robust anti-bot measures, such as CAPTCHAs and IP blocking. However, this may lead to a backlash from legitimate users, who may experience increased friction when accessing websites. In response, website owners will need to balance security with user experience.
Forecast for 5 years: The rise of AI-driven bots will lead to a significant shift in the way websites and publishers approach security and user experience. Expect the development of new technologies and strategies to detect and prevent bot traffic, as well as increased investment in AI-powered security solutions. Additionally, the bot problem may lead to a reevaluation of the open-access model, with some publishers and repositories considering more restrictive access policies.
Forecast for 10 years: In the long term, the bot problem will have a lasting impact on the way we access and share information online. Expect the development of new business models and revenue streams that prioritize security and user experience, as well as increased investment in AI-powered security solutions. Additionally, the bot problem may lead to a greater emphasis on decentralized and blockchain-based solutions for data sharing and storage.
