The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has begun terminating research grants that fund active scientific projects, citing a lack of alignment with “agency priorities.” The move has sparked widespread outrage among the scientific community, with many researchers expressing concerns that the terminations are motivated by politics rather than scientific merit. The NIH has instructed staff to review grants for projects related to transgender populations, diversity, equity, and inclusion, as well as research on climate change and funding for universities in China.
Forecast for 6 months: The NIH will continue to terminate research grants, potentially leading to a significant reduction in funding for critical scientific research. This could result in a slowdown of scientific progress and a loss of talent among researchers.
Forecast for 1 year: The scientific community will continue to push back against the NIH’s actions, potentially leading to a lawsuit or other forms of resistance. This could result in a delay or reversal of the NIH’s policies, but it may also lead to a further politicization of scientific research.
Forecast for 5 years: The NIH’s actions will have a lasting impact on the scientific community, potentially leading to a shift in the types of research that are funded and the priorities of the NIH. This could result in a loss of expertise and talent in certain areas of research, but it may also lead to new opportunities for researchers who are able to adapt to the changing landscape.
Forecast for 10 years: The NIH’s actions will be seen as a turning point in the history of scientific research in the US, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of the role of government in funding scientific research. This could result in a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between science and politics, but it may also lead to a further erosion of trust between the scientific community and the government.
