A recent study published in the journal Scientometrics has found that there is no reputational penalty for shared first authorships, even for the person named second. This discovery could lead to a shift in the way academic publications are credited, potentially reducing conflicts and increasing collaboration among researchers.
Forecast for 6 months: Within the next 6 months, we expect to see a significant increase in the number of academic publications that adopt shared first authorship, particularly in fields where collaboration is already common. This trend will be driven by the desire to reduce conflicts and increase recognition of the contributions of all authors.
Forecast for 1 year: In the next 12 months, we anticipate that the practice of shared first authorship will become more widespread, with many top-tier journals and conferences adopting policies that encourage collaboration and shared credit. This shift will be driven by the growing recognition of the value of collaboration and the need to reduce conflicts over authorship.
Forecast for 5 years: Within the next 5 years, we expect to see a fundamental change in the way academic publications are credited, with shared first authorship becoming the norm in many fields. This shift will be driven by the increasing recognition of the value of collaboration and the need to reduce conflicts over authorship, as well as the growing use of new metrics and tools to evaluate the impact of research.
Forecast for 10 years: In the next decade, we anticipate that the practice of shared first authorship will become the standard in most fields, with many top-tier journals and conferences requiring collaboration and shared credit as a condition of publication. This shift will be driven by the growing recognition of the value of collaboration and the need to reduce conflicts over authorship, as well as the increasing use of new metrics and tools to evaluate the impact of research.
